Schon seit einigen Monaten führen die Sellside-Analysten für den S&P 500 Index ein Kursziel von 1.300 Punkten. Ausgehend vom aktuellen Preisniveau sind das sage und schreibe 15% Potential in dem Index. Morgan Stanley hatten ihr "Untergewichten" für Aktien unlängst auf "Übergewichten" gedreht. J.P. Morgan hingegen wechselten in den vergangenen Tagen auf bärisch für Aktien.

1. Economy: The US economy remains in a fragile state

  • GS Economics forecasts sluggish recovery, high unemployment in 2010, and no Fed rate hike until 2012.
  • Benefit of inventory re-stocking and fiscal stimulus ends in the middle of 2010.
  • Excess capacity will affect inflation, interest rates, margins, and capex.
  • Federal and State fiscal imbalances are key risks; solutions will involve higher taxes and fewer benefits.

2. Earnings: Our S&P 500 operating EPS estimates are $78 for 2010 and $93 for 2011

  • Focus on $83 of pre-provision EPS in 2010 (+15%) and $93 in 2011 (+12%).
  • We forecast [Link "S&P 500" nicht mehr verfügbar] operating EPS will reach 102% of prior peak in 2011.
  • Net profit margins troughed in 2009 at much higher level than in prior cycles, accelerating earnings recovery.
  • EPS forecast in 2011 does not imply a new S&P 500 price level peak.

3. Valuation: Our year-end 2010 DDM fair value estimate of 1250 implies 13.5x NTM EPS

  • Our 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month S&P 500 targets equal 1160 (+5%), 1250 (+13%) and 1300 (+18%).
  • P/E typically remains flat during the second year of recovery; equity returns are a function of EPS growth.
  • S&P 500 is 60% above March 2009 low and trades below our year-end 2010 DDM fair value of 1250.
  • Recent sell-off is fifth decline of 5%+ since rally stalled, consistent with pattern of past bear market recessions.

4. Money flows: An improving back-drop for stock investors in 2010

  • We estimate $600 billion of potential flows into the US equity market.
  • Individuals: $350 billion potential re-allocation to risky assets from money market funds and savings deposits.
  • Institutions: $150 billion from hedge funds and foreign investors.
  • Corporations: $100 billion net flows from buybacks, M&A, and pension contributions, less equity issuance