Er nennt 3 kritische Punkte, die es in sich haben ... Auch wenn der Mann einem echt unsympathisch ist, wo er recht hat, hat er recht ...
Even the name
country, no Treasury standing behind this bank. The only thing that unites its seventeen member
countries is their common currency and that is a fabrication totally dependent upon the bank itself.
As a result of this the ECB is running three major risks while the Fed is running about 1.2 of them. The first and least problematic of those risks is the same one that the Fed has: the duration risk in owning long- term European government securities. Before they mature, their market price could drop because of an increase in interest rates.
The second risk is the credit risk, and for the ECB this is a gigantic one. There is no guarantee that the Greek government is going to be able to repay its Bonds when they mature because they cannot print euros. Arguing that these Bonds posses no risk of default is clearly ridiculous, but the ECB loaded with them, has to do that. The third risk is the currency risk. Certainly, no good Eurozone-phile would ever admit this risk as the national currencies of Greece, Italy, Spain and all the others vanished forever, but they are not necessarily gone. Evensaid that Greece could be expelled, and that outcome seems more than a distant probability. So, the ECB within its SPM mandate has loaded its balance sheet with risky paper that might not pay off and might be dominated in as yet unnamed and unknown currencies.
If the plans being hatched by the Merkozy duopoly come to pass, the ECB will have a portfolio of junk sovereign debt that will overwhelm its capital when the first country leaves the euro. At that point the Eurozone members will be dunned to add to its capital and the amount involved will be far more than the number of the loans that have gone bad. The ECB is a building built on sand – quicksand – and pushing this institution into a critical role is a major policy blunder that could eventually destroy the euro.