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I am increasingly worried that the world economy is at risk of falling into a Japaneselike quagmire. As Japan now enters what could arguably be its third lost decade, there are striking similarities with problems that are now afflicting other leading economies in the developed world—namely, the United States and Europe. Moreover, if we’re not careful, the Japanese disease could continue to mutate—infecting other major economies, including those in Developing Asia. We must be attentive to these risks.

The post-crisis world is obviously in a deep hole. To the extent that the other major economies of the developed world—namely, the United States and Europe—have been afflicted with some symptoms of the Japanese disease, it is wishful thinking to hope for a quick and easy way out. Contrary to accepted “wisdom,” the heavy artillery of monetary and fiscal policy won’t defer or offset the powerful deleveraging now at work in the post-crisis world.

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